Survey: Christianity's decline has slowed down... for now

The Pew Research Center's Religious Landscape Survey suggest the future of America will be less religious than ever before

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In 2007 and 2014, the Pew Research Center conducted its “Religious Landscape Survey,” arguably the largest, most comprehensive look at religion in the country. Each survey had more than 35,000 participants who answered questions about their beliefs in detail.

A decade ago, the big headline was about how much Christianity had declined in popularity since the previous survey—from 78.4% to 70.6%—while the “Unaffiliated” had risen from 16.1% of the population to 22.8%. (In 2019, a separate data release found that Christianity was still declining—rapidly—while Secular Americans made up more than a quarter of the population.)

So where are we at today?

Pew just released results from its 2023-2024 Religious Landscape Study and they reveal a country that’s as “spiritual” as ever… but not necessarily one full of people with religious labels. Religious groups may claim these results are good news, but that would be a very superficial way of interpreting the data.

People walking away from Christianity (Image via Adobe Spark)

Here are the biggest takeaways from the survey:

The shift away from Christianity is finally tapering off… but that’s not the whole story

Only 62% of Americans call themselves Christians—a massive drop from 2007 even if it is still a majority. If there’s any solace for believers, though, it’s that the number has been fairly steady for the past few years, even showing a slight increase recently.

But that drop for Christians has corresponded with a rise of the religiously unaffiliated (atheist, agnostic, or “nothing in particular”), which now sits around 29%. The rise of the “Nones” over the past two decades has come at the expense of Christianity; people abandoned their churches and decided religion wasn’t for them (even if they didn’t adopt an explicitly non-religious label).

The numbers get even more depressing for church leaders when you break them down by age. In fact, every single age cohort is now less likely to pray, less likely to use the “Christian” label, and more likely to be religiously unaffiliated compared to 2007 and 2014.

Look at the lighter blue lines (and the single dots representing people under 24). They represent astonishing levels of non-religiosity. Only 27% of 18-24-year-olds pray daily, and 43% of them have no religious affiliation. Even if those numbers remain steady in the future, that means a lot of people are becoming adults in a country where many of their peers don’t come from a religious background, making it even easier to raise kids outside a religious environment. If cultural acceptance was a reason people chose to stick with religion in the past, that pressure is rapidly dissipating.

Overall, fewer Americans today believe in God (only 54% are certain of God’s existence, compared to 71% in 2007), and even fewer Americans waste their time praying (only 44% pray daily, compared to 58% in 2007).

These numbers also suggest that as older Americans die, our country will become less religious.

Think about what this means in the long-term.

While I assume a lot of headlines about this Pew Survey will say the decline in religiosity has finally tapered off, that’s not really going to remain steady for very long because new generations are less religious than older ones. The only way Americans can become more religious as a whole is if younger people somehow drift back to organized religion in the future. But there’s no reason to think that’s going to happen.

So enjoy the horizontal line while you can, religion. It’ll continue dipping soon.

That also means the grip religion has on our society, at least in theological terms, is finally loosening.

If you believe, as I do, that we ought to live in a secular, pluralistic nation instead of the Christian-theocracy-in-everything-but-name that Republicans want right now, there’s reason to be optimistic about the future.

American atheism is becoming less white and less male-centric

Atheism has historically been a white guy thing. While various groups have long pushed to make atheist events (and acceptance of the ideas themselves) more inclusive, it has always felt like an uphill climb. But the Pew Survey suggests there’s at least some movement in the right direction.

In 2007, about 72% of religiously unaffiliated Americans were white. That number has dropped to 63% today, with the rise coming mostly from Hispanic (+4%) and Asian (+3%) people.

But that’s among the “unaffiliated.” What about atheists specifically? The contrast is less diverse. 75% are white, 10% are Hispanic, 8% are Asian, and 2% are Black. We’re still pretty damn white, albeit less so than before.

What about gender? In 2007, men with no religious affiliation represented 20% of all Americans while women represented 13%. Both numbers have risen, but the change is especially drastic among women. Today, 31% of Americans are men with no religion while 27% are women. In other words, the gap between non-religious men and women has dropped from 7% to 4%.

A modified screenshot from the data

Among atheists specifically, the numbers are smaller but still revealing. In 2007, 2% of Americans were male atheists; 1% were female atheists. Today, those numbers have jumped to 6% and 4% respectively. The relative gap between men and women has shrunk as our numbers have grown.

More Americans are “switching” away from organized religion

One of the reasons religion has historically had so much power is because when you raise your kids in a particular faith, you can assume they’ll continue those traditions as they grow up.

That’s no longer a safe assumption.

People make friends outside their bubble when they go to grade school and college, they date and marry people who don’t share their religion (though values likely overlap), they live in diverse communities where there’s no “default” faith, and there’s less stigma today in saying you’re not religious (or at least not Christian). The pressure to remain in the fold has largely evaporated and the numbers back that up.

When people were asked what religion they grew up in and what religion they practice today, the shifts were astonishing.

(This may be my favorite graphic in the report.)

For every new person who becomes a Christian, six leave the faith. (Among Catholics, for every 1 new convert, they lose 8.4 people.) Meanwhile, for every godless heathen who “finds” religion, nearly six others abandon theirs.

Why is that happening? While the survey doesn’t go into all that, I would argue “Nones” are the beneficiaries of organized religion’s addiction to shooting itself in the foot. Blame the sex scandals, the blatant hypocrisy, the desperate attempts to worship Donald Trump while abandoning Jesus, and the easy access to material for people questioning their faith.

The point is: Way more people are growing up and walking away from organized religion than entering it. It’s yet another reason to be optimistic about the future.

Americans are very illogical when it comes to their beliefs

There are some results in the Pew Survey that make no sense at all. But that assumes Americans are logical, and as plenty of Trump-to-Biden-to-Trump voters can tell you, many Americans have no cognitive dissonance whatsoever.

What are we talking about? Well, 5% of atheists apparently believe in Heaven… and that’s somehow an improvement over the 12% who did back in 2007.

4% of atheists still believe in Hell (down from 10% in 2007).

And (a very confused) 7% of atheists “believe in God or a universal spirit.”

Who are those people? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(On the flip side, while 92% of atheists say they’re absolutely or fairly certain God doesn’t exist, 2% of Christians say the same thing. Which makes you wonder why they still use the term to describe themselves.)

Americans’ religious identities parallel their political affiliations

You may have guessed by now that very religious Americans tend to vote for Republicans while Secular Americans tend to support Democrats. But it’s shocking to see just how stark those differences are.

Among Americans with “high religiousness”—who pray a lot, believe in God, attend church services, etc.—61% support Republicans. On the other side, 67% of Americans with “low religiousness” back Democrats. (It’s appalling, then, that Democrats don’t do more to reach out to secular voters before elections. Instead, they pander to a religious base that has given up on them while ignoring the growing number of Americans who might be swayed by a stronger push for church/state separation and a break from Christian Nationalism.)

That contrast is even more distinct among white Americans: 77% of highly religious white Americans are Republican while 68% of white Americans with “low religiousness” support Democrats.

Among Black Americans? It doesn’t matter the level of religiosity. They back Democrats no matter what.

When you look at the party breakdown by religion, there’s also no surprise: 82% of atheists are Democrats, the highest number for any “religious” group for any political party. (Only 70% of evangelicals are Republicans, though it jumps to 80% for white evangelicals specifically.)

Non-religious Americans have the moral high ground across the board

When it comes to just about any measure of basic human decency, the Pew Survey shows that Americans with less religiosity tend to have the more morally defensible beliefs.

Just consider some of today’s most hot-button issues.

Is social acceptance of transgender people a good thing? 58% of religiously unaffiliated Americans say yes (as do 76% of atheists) compared to only 29% of Christians.

Is it good to have more women in the workforce? The less religious you are, the more likely you are to say yes.

Is immigration a core value that defines who we are as Americans? Again, the less religious you are, the more open you are to people from all over the world coming into the United States.

Do you think racial and ethnic diversity is a good thing? If you’re very religious, you are less likely to believe that compared to non-religious Americans… which makes you wonder what the hell they’re teaching everyone in church.

Finally, should we protect the planet by having stricter environmental laws and regulations? 87% of atheists say yes, they’re worth the cost… but only 54% of Christians agree.

You get the idea here. No matter the topic, atheists (and Secular Americans in general) tend to take the positions that protect the vulnerable, minimize suffering, and consider long-term ramifications. Religious Americans are more likely to screw over the vulnerable, people who don’t look like them, and even our planet itself.

Several years ago, sociologist Phil Zuckerman wrote that “When it comes to the most pressing moral issues of the day, hard-core secularists exhibit much more empathy, compassion, and care for the well-being of others than the most ardently God-worshipping.” That hasn’t changed one bit.

And after a few more years under Trump’s Christian Nationalist regime, it’s possible that a lot of Americans will want to abandon his preferred religion along with his political party.

We can hope for that, anyway.

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