I suppose I shouldn't be surprised at the possibility of a plateau in the growth of the non-religious. Expecting a continuous increase in the numbers of those who, at some level or other, recognize that religions and the beliefs they promote are problematic is almost certainly unrealistic.
Still, one datum isn't the whole curve. I would like to see at least two or three more points plotted before making any kind of broad assumption. Let's see what the dx/dt (for those of you who studied calculus) REALLY is before jumping to conclusions.
It's all too nebulous to draw any firm conclusions. My opinion is most people are non religious. In the immortal words of ee cummings, the best thing about modern life is not going to church on Sunday.
I was a little surprised that the atheist demographic skewed male, but I suppose I shouldn't be considering the gender distribution of the regulars. I just hope that doesn't mean we're making women feel unwelcome. (Both the FA community and the wider community of non-believers)
I guess these stats put to rest the idea that the non-religious folk can’t tell right from wrong because they don’t have any guidance from above. But you all knew this :D
I think we should see in a couple years, not only this could be just a one off, but once we have to go through the election and whatever fallout that brings. Be it a Trump win and subsequent dictatorship, or his loss and the inevitable insurrection that follows and the fallout from that. Will the fascism and violence lead folks away from religion or toward it? I know the currently religious folks will run to more fundamentalism. Will the rest see the connection between the dictatorial violence and religion and run from it?
All in all, I expect the next few years to be quite volatile and for religion to be at the heart of the worst of it. I do think there will be claims of religion to be a part of the best as well, similar to the slavery issue.
The biggest factor in the acceptance by mainstream society of Black and gay people was simply getting to know some. I don't flaunt the fact that I'm an atheist, but I don't cover it up, either. And I publicly and visibly shake my head and express my disgust at stupid, hurtful things that are done in the name of religion. Each of us can be an ambassador for rational thinking if we lead by example.
Too early to be talking about a plateau. Could be sampling error or any host of other things. I feel like we’re not close to the plateau, yet, considering the underlying trends. The elderly are the most religious while the youngest generations are the least (also a possible explanation for why “Nones” are less politically active). One other factor that’s limiting the growth of the nones is immigration. I don’t have stats off the top of my head but know that Hispanics tend to be very Catholic, so assume that could play a role as well.
"How many more people are there to get? At some point, you have to believe we’ve found just about all the people who are fed up with organized religion."
Oh, not to worry. As they are itemized later in the OP, organized religion continues to pump out outrages, bigotries, sex scandals, money scandals, outright crimes, idiotic responses to public crises, and fascist politics faster than an arms factory in a wartime economy. The effect of all that abundant productivity of last straws will have its ups and downs on society's disgust with organized religion, but I think the long-term trend will keep going up, even if it is not as rocket-like.
Remember that there is another cause of the demise of religion that is not about particular outrages and last straws. It's the slow, quiet receding of humanity's interest in supernaturalism. It used to be like a thick, wall-to-wall carpet covering all of civilization. Now it's thinner in general, with almost bare spots and completely bare spots. There will be hold-outs for the next century or two, but this carpet is on its way out.
I'm in two minds about this. On the one hand, Jon Stewart hosting The Daily Show again (even if only one day every week)- during a batshit crazy election season, at that. On the other hand, it feels like the network probably threw up their hands after rotating through temporary hosts for months on end and said "let's just give Jon a call since his podcast got cancelled and see if he bites."
On the 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 other hand... Jon Stewart's coming back to The Daily Show! I 𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵 be unhappy about that.
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised at the possibility of a plateau in the growth of the non-religious. Expecting a continuous increase in the numbers of those who, at some level or other, recognize that religions and the beliefs they promote are problematic is almost certainly unrealistic.
Still, one datum isn't the whole curve. I would like to see at least two or three more points plotted before making any kind of broad assumption. Let's see what the dx/dt (for those of you who studied calculus) REALLY is before jumping to conclusions.
It's all too nebulous to draw any firm conclusions. My opinion is most people are non religious. In the immortal words of ee cummings, the best thing about modern life is not going to church on Sunday.
I was a little surprised that the atheist demographic skewed male, but I suppose I shouldn't be considering the gender distribution of the regulars. I just hope that doesn't mean we're making women feel unwelcome. (Both the FA community and the wider community of non-believers)
This could easily be nothing more than normal statistical variations you expect with sampled data, it will take time to find out if it's real.
I guess these stats put to rest the idea that the non-religious folk can’t tell right from wrong because they don’t have any guidance from above. But you all knew this :D
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/24/united-auto-workers-endorse-biden
not to be sneezed at?
I think we should see in a couple years, not only this could be just a one off, but once we have to go through the election and whatever fallout that brings. Be it a Trump win and subsequent dictatorship, or his loss and the inevitable insurrection that follows and the fallout from that. Will the fascism and violence lead folks away from religion or toward it? I know the currently religious folks will run to more fundamentalism. Will the rest see the connection between the dictatorial violence and religion and run from it?
All in all, I expect the next few years to be quite volatile and for religion to be at the heart of the worst of it. I do think there will be claims of religion to be a part of the best as well, similar to the slavery issue.
OT: I sent this to Hemant, but until he writes something here's Iowa Xtian theofascists trying to push chaplaincy into our public schools.
https://iowastartingline.com/2024/01/24/iowa-bill-would-let-public-schools-hire-unlicensed-chaplains-but-unintended-consequences-may-arise/
I think America needs to go old school here and start throwing that stuff in the harbor, remind them who we are
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68085304
The biggest factor in the acceptance by mainstream society of Black and gay people was simply getting to know some. I don't flaunt the fact that I'm an atheist, but I don't cover it up, either. And I publicly and visibly shake my head and express my disgust at stupid, hurtful things that are done in the name of religion. Each of us can be an ambassador for rational thinking if we lead by example.
Too early to be talking about a plateau. Could be sampling error or any host of other things. I feel like we’re not close to the plateau, yet, considering the underlying trends. The elderly are the most religious while the youngest generations are the least (also a possible explanation for why “Nones” are less politically active). One other factor that’s limiting the growth of the nones is immigration. I don’t have stats off the top of my head but know that Hispanics tend to be very Catholic, so assume that could play a role as well.
As this PRC analysis concentrates on the US alone (where Christianity is the dominant religion), this plateau is to be expected.
I like to see Pew do analysis on "nones" worldwide. Might get a very different result.
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/charlie-kirk-instructs-maga-audience-not-to-go-to-the-hospital
Good advice. Hope they all take it.
"How many more people are there to get? At some point, you have to believe we’ve found just about all the people who are fed up with organized religion."
Oh, not to worry. As they are itemized later in the OP, organized religion continues to pump out outrages, bigotries, sex scandals, money scandals, outright crimes, idiotic responses to public crises, and fascist politics faster than an arms factory in a wartime economy. The effect of all that abundant productivity of last straws will have its ups and downs on society's disgust with organized religion, but I think the long-term trend will keep going up, even if it is not as rocket-like.
Remember that there is another cause of the demise of religion that is not about particular outrages and last straws. It's the slow, quiet receding of humanity's interest in supernaturalism. It used to be like a thick, wall-to-wall carpet covering all of civilization. Now it's thinner in general, with almost bare spots and completely bare spots. There will be hold-outs for the next century or two, but this carpet is on its way out.
My service provider: ”𝑫𝒐 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒄𝒍𝒊𝒄𝒌 𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒌𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝑺𝑴𝑺 𝒃𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝒔𝒄𝒂𝒎𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒔𝒑𝒐𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓!”
Also my service provider: ”𝑪𝒍𝒊𝒄𝒌 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒌 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒊𝒔 𝑺𝑴𝑺 𝒕𝒐 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒅 𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆.”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1cc0eb453dfe10e340863409c5dd09f621beda207407df8ef9bb3f26dfb0494.jpg
OT- 𝘏𝘦'𝘴 𝘣𝘢𝘢𝘢𝘢𝘢𝘢𝘤𝘬... https://apnews.com/article/jon-stewart-daily-show-return-048cd92c65c0e5bc246790fdcafaab00
I'm in two minds about this. On the one hand, Jon Stewart hosting The Daily Show again (even if only one day every week)- during a batshit crazy election season, at that. On the other hand, it feels like the network probably threw up their hands after rotating through temporary hosts for months on end and said "let's just give Jon a call since his podcast got cancelled and see if he bites."
On the 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 other hand... Jon Stewart's coming back to The Daily Show! I 𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵 be unhappy about that.