A jump from 28% to 42% in THREE YEARS? That should raise the suspicion of any statistician worth their salt. I would wonder both about the sample size AND the demographic being sampled.
Something is seriously rotten in those numbers, and further research and investigation is clearly warranted.
According to the article, the samples of 18-29 year olds was ridiculously small, hence the high margins of error: "295 men aged 18-29 and 145 women aged 18-29". That's not a polling sample, it's a line at Starbucks.
Especially as a wee while ago a poll was reported, which (apparently) showed that there was increased religiosity in the UK. And then a short while later it was reported that the poll was flawed.
I think Hemant has a point about the wording of the question. I could argue that I find religion important only because more than half the country believes in the supernatural and one political party is wielding that belief like a cudgel.
I would want to know how many of them attend church regularly or simply believe God can smite them for not.
OR ... do they believe that faking it like Donnie Dumb-Ass does will aid in getting them the power and influence they want? Sure works for Donnie. Why shouldn't it work for me?
Further Thought: We allegedly have 42% of young men saying that religion is important in their lives. Okay, HOW IMPORTANT? How are they recognizing and/or expressing that importance? Do they go to church, AND DO THEY TITHE??? Do they support the social positions their church takes.
Finally and most importantly, WHERE DO THEY STAND ON STATE / CHURCH SEPARATION?
The question about "importance" struck me as phenomenally vague. Let's NAIL THINGS DOWN just a little bit.
Seems like religion is less important to these "converts" than having a source of authority backing their misogynistic views.
In other words, I wouldn't expect these "alpha" bros to be volunteering to take the places of the women leaving the church in the nursery and Sunday Schools and the church bake sales.
An argument could be made that this poll is a bit more accurate, since the one that predicted Harris beating Trump failed to account for the misogyny and racism that we are still trying to excise from the nation's core.
Farron did a piece on Gallup awhile back (can't remember if it was Farron Balanced or Ring of Fire).. He was none too pleased with them. Wish I could find the segment.
To add: I believe it has something to do with Gallup deciding to end presidential approval ratings that it had been doing since 1938 during FDRs 2nd term. Farron saw cowardice/fear of Trump in Gallop's actions (at the time they did that, Trump's approval rating was down to 36%).
Oh yeah. I am aware that correlation does not equal causation, but the correlation is pretty strong here. It is difficult to tell if one is causing the other, or if both are symptoms of the same thing. I suspect there are other factors. The wealthy and powerful white men these young people are following have been telling them that it is the "woke mob" of feminists, POC, and the LGBTQ community that are all oppressing them, partly to distract them from the fact that it is the wealthy who are doing the oppressing, and partly to indoctrinate.
On the one hand... there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. The question is poorly worded, and it's easy to lead a poll where you want it to go.
On the other hand, there 𝘩𝘢𝘴 been a massive, full-spectrum recruiting campaign by the religious right, 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 targeting disaffected young men. It's been going on for years and, like it or lump it, propaganda works. It isn't all that surprising, considering that the recommendation algorithms on youtube and social media platforms tend to dive right down the manosphere sewer if a user watches so much as one clip of a right-wing influencer then leaves the app on autoplay, that a greater percentage of young men who already lean a bit conservative might be taken in by that kind of shit. It is literally the result that the entire right-wing media ecosystem is designed to produce.
I don’t really have an answer for this. We also live in our own atheist bubble for the most part. So it may seem impossible to us simply because it reinforces what we already think. And the data generally have supported what we already think. The people are leaving religion.
Someone else mentioned that the big poll suggesting that religion has increased in the UK has been withdrawn as being too methodologically flawed to be of much value. Captain Cassidy had a big article on the subject.
But I see some flaws here. And I’m only on my 1st cup of coffee and I have to go pack for a trip. Yay. I’m going somewhere again.
“Religious” is defined as attending church at least once a month. As I’ve commented on these surveys before, this is an incredibly low bar. Are they giving money to the church? Are they volunteering for the church, are they doing this that or other for the church? Or do they claim to go at least once a month? Is the sample actually reasonable, or are they asking a lot of young men in Arkansas?
A factor that fits into it for me also is the role of influencers in the most generic sense of the word. A lot of people go where the trends go. It’s sort of like funny little beards and tattoos. Everybody has them now. In other words, it’s trendy and fashionable, and people that want to belong, and feel like they don’t, may be listening to the people who tell them to go to church. Are they measuring religiosity, or are they measuring herd instinct, the need to belong, the need to associate or aligned with people in power, the need to be trendy, even if the trend isn’t real?
I don’t have an answer to it. But my suspicion is that the picture is not as Rosy as they would like it to be.
Gee, I wonder why young women are running from the church? Could it be that we aren’t viewed as full human beings capable of making informed decisions about our bodies and lives? Also, some amount of young men turning to church with their misplaced anger is to be expected in this current climate. The promise of your own “mini empire” (control over a wife and children) is appealing enough for some men to forget all about the systems we live under that hurt all of us.
We know why: the male loneliness epidemic. They're filling their time hangin' with the bros talkin' 'bout jesus because they're so bored and lonely. Which leads to the next logical step: forcing women to be their girlfriends because it's what jesus/god wants! So guys, get yourself a club and go find the woman you want and take her home because the wimin fokes are just there to take care of you. Right?........Right?
Yeah that's basically it. But the 'why' isn't 'because they're evil.' It's 'because in today's society, living, working, and socializing via smartphone means never having to learn how to interact in an adult manner with women.'
I constantly get spam calls on my cell phone, some for someone else completely. One guy had my identity correct, but the property they wanted to sell a roof or something for was not. Asked about a California property where I have never lived. While we were actively doing paperwork for a loan I received over 50 calls a day for three months, now it’s a trickle of five or six a day. No matter how many I block, I still get more.
Don't know if something triggered it, but I just had multiple calls over a short period, all with the same prefix and not quite sequential following digits. Haven't answered one.
One thing that is consistently left out of polls like this (and is the reason why the margins of error are so wide) is that people who are right wing want to typically be seen as morally superior and are performatively religious so they might answer that they attend church or be seen as christian even if they aren't actually following the rules or going to church. They simply want to be seen as a morally good person so they won't answer these polls honestly. Additionally, the big jump in 2-3 years also seems to indicate that people who are already religious might be becoming more performatively religious in that sense.
The herd instinct runs deep in the human species, and I suspect it was part of our survival strategy. Puny little humans survived by banding together for defense and division of labor. That instinct to band together combined with the fact believing is easier than thinking for a lot of people is how organized religion survives. I don’t know if these statistics are valid or not, and do not especially care. I know I would never trust any self-justifying nonsense put out by the churches.
I am not surprised about a surge in young conservative men. Evagelicalism is basically promising a bunch of angry horny 20-somethings who usually interact with women over apps, that the church will do their dating for them, and they'll all get tradwives they can rule over.
It's bread and circuses.
But I don't think that hump will continue into the 30-39 age group as this cohort ages. Because most won't get that tradwife, and as soon as they realize that the church was promising them a dream they can't deliver, those men will leave.
***
I do think we have a sexism and objectification problem. Yes, it was always there, but it seems to have reversed/gotten worse lately after several decades of progress. I do blame phones/internet. I think young men really need more face to face time with women, to interact with them as human beings, have them as friends and peers. They need to date, and fail at it, and get better at relationships through trial and error so that they're ready for serious relationships in their late 20s-early 30s. I mean women need those things too, but if they're having the same problem connecting with men, I don't see evidence of it like I do on the male side.
A jump from 28% to 42% in THREE YEARS? That should raise the suspicion of any statistician worth their salt. I would wonder both about the sample size AND the demographic being sampled.
Something is seriously rotten in those numbers, and further research and investigation is clearly warranted.
According to the article, the samples of 18-29 year olds was ridiculously small, hence the high margins of error: "295 men aged 18-29 and 145 women aged 18-29". That's not a polling sample, it's a line at Starbucks.
Yep. The study isn't credible and shouldn't be quoted for any reason.
Especially when "poll numbers" also claim that young trumpvangelicals are abandoning the der gropenfuhrer.
"der gropenfuhrer". OMG. 🤣
Right, the narrative is always pushed hard first and then they try and will it into reality.
Don’t believe the hype! 😜
I think they may have sampled MAGA young men who no longer have women who want to date them…so they go to church..but it doesn’t help! 😄
Whatever the sample was, it sure as hell didn't smell as though it were unbiased!
I am highly skeptical of this claim. Polling is notoriously unreliable and has been for some time.
Especially as a wee while ago a poll was reported, which (apparently) showed that there was increased religiosity in the UK. And then a short while later it was reported that the poll was flawed.
Polls are not gospel.
https://freethinker.co.uk/2026/04/bible-society-retracts-false-quiet-revival-claims/
“Bible Society”.
Gee, I wonder if they have an underhanded motive for reporting the way they did. /s
"I am highly skeptical of this claim"
Me too, the figure looks like an outlier.
"Polling is notoriously unreliable"
Indeed, I would like to see their methodology. I note that the margins of error are 7% and 10%.
So what will happen when the next survey drops the value by 15%?
I think Hemant has a point about the wording of the question. I could argue that I find religion important only because more than half the country believes in the supernatural and one political party is wielding that belief like a cudgel.
I would want to know how many of them attend church regularly or simply believe God can smite them for not.
OR ... do they believe that faking it like Donnie Dumb-Ass does will aid in getting them the power and influence they want? Sure works for Donnie. Why shouldn't it work for me?
Any bets on that one?
Yea, I'm not taking that bet.
Especially amongst young men.
Further Thought: We allegedly have 42% of young men saying that religion is important in their lives. Okay, HOW IMPORTANT? How are they recognizing and/or expressing that importance? Do they go to church, AND DO THEY TITHE??? Do they support the social positions their church takes.
Finally and most importantly, WHERE DO THEY STAND ON STATE / CHURCH SEPARATION?
The question about "importance" struck me as phenomenally vague. Let's NAIL THINGS DOWN just a little bit.
Seems like religion is less important to these "converts" than having a source of authority backing their misogynistic views.
In other words, I wouldn't expect these "alpha" bros to be volunteering to take the places of the women leaving the church in the nursery and Sunday Schools and the church bake sales.
I expect a few to be volunteering for Sunday school or youth groups leaders.
Eww. But you're probably correct.
I thought Hemant might generate an article on this. I posted the story at FA 3 days ago.
Gallup polling (and polling in general) predicted Kamala Harris beating Trump in 2024. You can see how THAT went. Always be careful with polling.
An argument could be made that this poll is a bit more accurate, since the one that predicted Harris beating Trump failed to account for the misogyny and racism that we are still trying to excise from the nation's core.
Farron did a piece on Gallup awhile back (can't remember if it was Farron Balanced or Ring of Fire).. He was none too pleased with them. Wish I could find the segment.
To add: I believe it has something to do with Gallup deciding to end presidential approval ratings that it had been doing since 1938 during FDRs 2nd term. Farron saw cowardice/fear of Trump in Gallop's actions (at the time they did that, Trump's approval rating was down to 36%).
Yeah, it was fairly obvious that they stopped presidential approval ratings out of fear of Trump enacting revenge of some sort on them.
I kinda remember that. Pretty sure it was Farron Balanced.
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑢𝑠 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑔 𝑅𝑒𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑠. 𝑇ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟.
I wonder why?
...𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑦𝑜𝑢’𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑒𝑑𝑙𝑦 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑖𝑠𝑛’𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒. 𝐼𝑡’𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡’𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑔𝑦𝑛𝑦, 𝑐𝑟𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑦, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑚.
Oh yeah. I am aware that correlation does not equal causation, but the correlation is pretty strong here. It is difficult to tell if one is causing the other, or if both are symptoms of the same thing. I suspect there are other factors. The wealthy and powerful white men these young people are following have been telling them that it is the "woke mob" of feminists, POC, and the LGBTQ community that are all oppressing them, partly to distract them from the fact that it is the wealthy who are doing the oppressing, and partly to indoctrinate.
Like someone once told me. "If your religion requires you to hate or control other people, you need to find a new religion."
That seems to eliminate most religions
On the one hand... there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. The question is poorly worded, and it's easy to lead a poll where you want it to go.
On the other hand, there 𝘩𝘢𝘴 been a massive, full-spectrum recruiting campaign by the religious right, 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 targeting disaffected young men. It's been going on for years and, like it or lump it, propaganda works. It isn't all that surprising, considering that the recommendation algorithms on youtube and social media platforms tend to dive right down the manosphere sewer if a user watches so much as one clip of a right-wing influencer then leaves the app on autoplay, that a greater percentage of young men who already lean a bit conservative might be taken in by that kind of shit. It is literally the result that the entire right-wing media ecosystem is designed to produce.
I don’t really have an answer for this. We also live in our own atheist bubble for the most part. So it may seem impossible to us simply because it reinforces what we already think. And the data generally have supported what we already think. The people are leaving religion.
Someone else mentioned that the big poll suggesting that religion has increased in the UK has been withdrawn as being too methodologically flawed to be of much value. Captain Cassidy had a big article on the subject.
But I see some flaws here. And I’m only on my 1st cup of coffee and I have to go pack for a trip. Yay. I’m going somewhere again.
“Religious” is defined as attending church at least once a month. As I’ve commented on these surveys before, this is an incredibly low bar. Are they giving money to the church? Are they volunteering for the church, are they doing this that or other for the church? Or do they claim to go at least once a month? Is the sample actually reasonable, or are they asking a lot of young men in Arkansas?
A factor that fits into it for me also is the role of influencers in the most generic sense of the word. A lot of people go where the trends go. It’s sort of like funny little beards and tattoos. Everybody has them now. In other words, it’s trendy and fashionable, and people that want to belong, and feel like they don’t, may be listening to the people who tell them to go to church. Are they measuring religiosity, or are they measuring herd instinct, the need to belong, the need to associate or aligned with people in power, the need to be trendy, even if the trend isn’t real?
I don’t have an answer to it. But my suspicion is that the picture is not as Rosy as they would like it to be.
Gee, I wonder why young women are running from the church? Could it be that we aren’t viewed as full human beings capable of making informed decisions about our bodies and lives? Also, some amount of young men turning to church with their misplaced anger is to be expected in this current climate. The promise of your own “mini empire” (control over a wife and children) is appealing enough for some men to forget all about the systems we live under that hurt all of us.
I am glad you pointed out the forced-birther influence.
We know why: the male loneliness epidemic. They're filling their time hangin' with the bros talkin' 'bout jesus because they're so bored and lonely. Which leads to the next logical step: forcing women to be their girlfriends because it's what jesus/god wants! So guys, get yourself a club and go find the woman you want and take her home because the wimin fokes are just there to take care of you. Right?........Right?
If Jesus bros think they're bored now, wait until they die and have to spend eternity in heaven.
Yeah that's basically it. But the 'why' isn't 'because they're evil.' It's 'because in today's society, living, working, and socializing via smartphone means never having to learn how to interact in an adult manner with women.'
Poll questions:
1. How many people trust polls.
2. How many immediately hang up on pollsters when they call?
3. How many questions should be in a poll?
How well-worded is the poll? Are there ANY vagaries in the wording?
How many polls are conducted via cell phones versus landlines?
I don't know. I'm pretty quick on the hangup. I don't get many spam calls on my cellphone.
I constantly get spam calls on my cell phone, some for someone else completely. One guy had my identity correct, but the property they wanted to sell a roof or something for was not. Asked about a California property where I have never lived. While we were actively doing paperwork for a loan I received over 50 calls a day for three months, now it’s a trickle of five or six a day. No matter how many I block, I still get more.
Don't know if something triggered it, but I just had multiple calls over a short period, all with the same prefix and not quite sequential following digits. Haven't answered one.
We sold our house and moved almost 2 years ago. I still get calls from real estate agents asking if I want to sell my old house.
They do ask about my old house we moved out of 14 years ago.
“See, he keeps hanging up, and it's a man answering.”
One thing that is consistently left out of polls like this (and is the reason why the margins of error are so wide) is that people who are right wing want to typically be seen as morally superior and are performatively religious so they might answer that they attend church or be seen as christian even if they aren't actually following the rules or going to church. They simply want to be seen as a morally good person so they won't answer these polls honestly. Additionally, the big jump in 2-3 years also seems to indicate that people who are already religious might be becoming more performatively religious in that sense.
The herd instinct runs deep in the human species, and I suspect it was part of our survival strategy. Puny little humans survived by banding together for defense and division of labor. That instinct to band together combined with the fact believing is easier than thinking for a lot of people is how organized religion survives. I don’t know if these statistics are valid or not, and do not especially care. I know I would never trust any self-justifying nonsense put out by the churches.
I am not surprised about a surge in young conservative men. Evagelicalism is basically promising a bunch of angry horny 20-somethings who usually interact with women over apps, that the church will do their dating for them, and they'll all get tradwives they can rule over.
It's bread and circuses.
But I don't think that hump will continue into the 30-39 age group as this cohort ages. Because most won't get that tradwife, and as soon as they realize that the church was promising them a dream they can't deliver, those men will leave.
***
I do think we have a sexism and objectification problem. Yes, it was always there, but it seems to have reversed/gotten worse lately after several decades of progress. I do blame phones/internet. I think young men really need more face to face time with women, to interact with them as human beings, have them as friends and peers. They need to date, and fail at it, and get better at relationships through trial and error so that they're ready for serious relationships in their late 20s-early 30s. I mean women need those things too, but if they're having the same problem connecting with men, I don't see evidence of it like I do on the male side.
Most of us solved that by dating older men who had figured out who they were.
As an older dude, I appreciate that. But for the women, I wish it didn't have to be so.
OT
Oh my. George Takei is 89 today. Hope he and Brad are living a life full of love and happiness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5Y25FT7DxE